• The specialty coffee industry is grappling with a record-breaking year on the cost front.
• Green coffee prices hit an all-time high in February 2025 and have remained high and volatile since.
• This “new reality” for the coffee industry is now unavoidable, reshaping trade dynamics, long-standing commercial relationships, and consumer trust.
• Roasters need to prepare for more market turbulence, and the answer lies in working closely with trade partners to create lasting stability.

Price volatility has been a defining factor of the coffee industry in 2025. 

In early February, the C price hit US$4.41/lb – its highest level on record – signalling a turning point for producers, roasters, and traders. Coffee prices have dipped, but remained comparatively high, in the months since.

However, following the US government’s decision to implement staggering 50% tariffs on Brazil, the C price jumped again, creeping back up to the record levels seen earlier in the year, but then sharply dropped following reports of a record harvest for Vietnam and possible tariff exemptions for coffee. Climate change, political instability, and global economic pressures are all exacerbating the situation.

Essentially, it’s unlikely that market volatility will slow down any time soon – and roasters need to be prepared. Understanding these dynamics and preparing for continued turbulence has become essential for sustainable business operations. Roasters who adapt strategically will be better positioned to thrive in the face of ongoing uncertainty. 

I spoke to Kenneth Barigye at Mountain Harvest Coffee and Matt Randell at Langdon Coffee Merchants to learn more.

You may also like our article on why roasters’ price increases are different now.

Why coffee prices have stayed so high in 2025

The coffee industry is navigating one of its most turbulent periods in recent history.

Record green coffee prices – driven by unfavourable weather and ongoing supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam – have coincided with rising inflation and high interest rates. This has created a perfect storm of challenging market conditions for producers, traders, and roasters alike.

Climate-related disruptions are affecting coffee producers, in particular, worldwide, not just in Brazil and Vietnam.

“The most significant impact was caused by delayed rains, which disrupted the flowering of our coffee plants,” explains Kenneth, the managing director at Mountain Harvest Coffee, an exporter in Uganda. “Coffee relies on the first rains to trigger uniform flowering, so the delays led to uneven flowering, which caused staggered cherry development and ultimately uneven ripening at harvest on Mt Rwenzori.”

The consequences were substantial, with production costs increasing dramatically to compensate for harvest shortfalls.

“These late rains shortened the grain-filling period, and the mountain produced smaller beans, which meant we had to purchase 20% more coffee cherries to get 1kg of green coffee,” Kenneth tells me. “Some regions saw even more severe impacts, with Mt Elgon experiencing a 50% drop in production compared to the yield estimated at the beginning of the year.”

While there’s a narrative that higher prices mean higher profits, these climate-related challenges demonstrate that the reality is far more complex. Unpredictable weather, rising fertiliser costs, and labour shortages all add pressure to farmers’ operations, eating into margins and creating more instability.

Political volatility and ongoing trade tensions have also added further layers of complexity.

“Geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global shipping routes, increased insurance premiums, and raised fuel prices,” Kenneth says. “Combined with the global shortage of shipping containers – especially after the Suez Canal blockage – freight rates have risen dramatically.”

Unprecedented tariffs have disrupted traditional trading patterns, too. US President Donald Trump’s decision to roll out sweeping tariffs – including a staggering 50% on Brazil – is reshaping global coffee trade as we know it.

According to data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), the country shipped 21,679 60kg bags of specialty coffee to the US in August, representing a dramatic decline of 79.5% compared to the same month in 2024. 

The Brazilian Specialty Coffee Association also reported that contracts have been suspended, cancelled, or postponed at the request of US importers who can’t afford to cover the steep additional levies.

Given its sheer scale as the world’s biggest coffee producer, Brazil has a huge influence over the wider market – driving price volatility across the board.

Why the volatility of coffee prices won’t slow down anytime soon

Political instability, trade wars, and climate challenges are driving price volatility, which means there is little respite for the coffee industry in the years ahead. 

“Volatility is here to stay,” says Matt, the Head of Sales and Business Development at Langdon Coffee Merchants, a specialty green coffee importer with offices in the UK and Australia. “News that used to spread slowly now travels around the globe in seconds. Climate instability is also a new reality, and global demand for coffee is only increasing.”

Indeed, the most recent National Coffee Association 2025 National Data Trends report found that specialty coffee consumption is at an all-time high in the US; 48% of adults consumed specialty coffee in the past day. Meanwhile, in emerging markets like India, coffee consumption is growing at pace, reaching an estimated 91 tonnes in 2023.

But as global coffee stockpiles dwindle, the coffee supply chain is increasingly strained to keep up with growing demand, fuelling the peaks and troughs of the volatile C market.

Roasters, in particular, have needed to adapt drastically to keep their businesses viable and profitable, preparing them for the challenges ahead. This means investing in healthy supply chains that can withstand ongoing disruptions and building resilience through strategic partnerships and reliable access to diverse coffee sources.

Working closely with trusted importers and exporters is often one of the most effective ways to provide stability and leverage expertise. Traders like Langdon Coffee Merchants serve as a bridge between roasters and producers, offering comprehensive supply chain solutions that address market volatility through established relationships and market intelligence.

“We can benefit both the producer and roaster when we are intentional with our green coffee buying,” Matt explains. “Whether it’s a new take on supply chain dynamics, showcasing the best that an origin has to offer, or a laser-sharp focus on smallholder relationships that we have nurtured for a long time, we aim to create mutual value.”

A key aspect of this is providing access to a wide range of coffee origins, allowing producers and roasters to weather market turbulence. Langdon Coffee Merchants, for instance, gives roasters access to a diverse selection of coffees within stable, well-supported supply chains that ensure they can meet demand and manage quality and flavour standards.

How roasters can prepare for further price volatility

The coffee industry is entering a new era, shaped by consistently high prices and evolving market dynamics. For roasters, successfully navigating this volatility requires strategic preparation across multiple operational areas.

“Roasters enjoyed healthy margins off the back of a cheap market rate for the past 20 or so years, building big teams and large account management structures,” Matt explains. 

But now, with elevated market rates, roasters need to change their sourcing strategies or commit to ones they know work.

“We have advocated for shorter contracts, three to four months at a time, giving roasters a few bites at the cherry to come out with a weighted cost they are comfortable with,” Matt explains. “We also feel it is beneficial in this climate to be decisive, booking coffee that you know you will need, rather than waiting to beat the market.”

Traders like Langdon Coffee Merchants support both adaptive and established sourcing strategies through forward-purchase commitments and market insights that help roasters access trade finance and plan with greater confidence. These arrangements reduce exposure to sudden market swings while enabling more predictable pricing structures.

Long-term partnerships also create invaluable stability during turbulent periods. These working relationships foster two-way communication channels that enable producers and roasters to share their challenges and successes, promoting mutual understanding and collaboration.

“Despite these current challenges, our investment in long-term buyer relationships over the past seven years has proven invaluable,” says Kenneth. “We emphasise transparency, traceability, and consistent communication; our buyers understand the realities we face on the ground.”

Trust-based relationships often strengthen under pressure rather than weaken – a much-needed dynamic in today’s market. 

“Buyers appreciate our honesty, our efforts to maintain quality, and our commitment to farmers’ resilience, especially in difficult times like these,” Kenneth adds. “We work closely with buyers to adjust timelines, agree on fair pricing structures, and share the risk in ways that protect all of us.”

Market volatility makes sourcing flexibility essential for maintaining a consistent supply and meeting customer demands. Understanding origin-specific challenges then becomes crucial for effective diversification planning.

“Almost all of Uganda’s coffee exits through Mombasa Port, and this dependence means any port congestion, strikes, or political disruptions in Kenya immediately delay Ugandan exports,” Kenneth explains. “Additionally, over 80% of Uganda’s coffee comes from smallholder farmers, who often have 0.5 to 2 acres. This creates variability in quality, as not all farmers have access to training, post-harvest handling infrastructure, or inputs.”

However, for roasters, who are increasingly compelled to focus on product diversification and marketing strategies to compete in today’s competitive industry, maintaining such in-depth oversight over their supply chains is challenging. Intermediaries, such as exporters and importers, that focus on retaining value in the supply chain can help fill this gap.

“Our partnership with Langdon Coffee Merchants demonstrates that in times of uncertainty, long-term trust and shared values are the strongest safeguards for both producers and roasters,” Kenneth explains. “By working with trusted partners, we can turn global uncertainty into resilience – ensuring quality coffee and sustainable livelihoods for farmers.”

This approach enables roasters to offer unique products and authentic stories that help them differentiate, creating sustainable competitive advantages regardless of market conditions.

“Focus on the value you have beyond just the race to the bottom on price,” Matt advises. “We encourage long-term relationships and provide communication lines between producer and roaster, demonstrating the real value of their coffee.”

The coffee industry’s current volatility represents a fundamental shift requiring strategic adaptation. Roasters who develop strong partnerships, implement flexible sourcing strategies, and focus on value creation beyond price competition will be better positioned for long-term success.

Building trust-based relationships with reliable importers and producers fosters stability during turbulent periods, while also enabling access to diverse coffee sources. Market uncertainty will persist, but roasters who embrace strategic preparation can transform challenges into competitive advantages, ensuring business resilience regardless of future market conditions.

Enjoyed this? Then read our article on how high coffee prices changed the meaning of direct trade.

Photo credits: Langdon Coffee Merchants

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